Jiří Filip Sanarwar Labarai: Mafi munin yanayin yanayi - mamayar da Rasha ta yi wa Ukraine - yana zuwa gaskiya. Mun yi Allah wadai da wannan zalunci kuma a cikin wannan takarda muna ƙoƙarin yin nazarin sakamakon tattalin arziki da tasirin kasuwannin kuɗi.
Farashin mai ya haura dala 100 kowace ganga
Kasar Rasha ita ce babbar jigo a kasuwar kayayyaki ta makamashi. Yana da mahimmanci musamman ga Turai. Halin da ake ciki na mai alama ce mai kyau na tashin hankali na yanzu. Farashin ya zarce dalar Amurka 100 kan kowacce ganga a karon farko tun shekarar 2014. Rasha na fitar da kusan ganga miliyan 5 na mai a kowace rana. Wannan shine kusan kashi 5% na buƙatun duniya. Tarayyar Turai tana shigo da kusan rabin wannan kundin. Idan kasashen yamma sun yanke shawarar yanke Rasha daga tsarin biyan kuɗi na duniya na SWIFT, za a iya dakatar da fitar da Rasha zuwa EU. Dangane da wannan yanayin, muna sa ran karuwar farashin mai da dala 20-30 kowace ganga. A ra'ayinmu, ƙimar haɗarin yaƙi a farashin mai na yanzu ya kai dala 15-20 kowace ganga.
Turai ita ce babbar mai shigo da mai na Rasha. Tushen: Bloomberg, Binciken XTB
Rally akan zinari da palladium
Rikicin shine babban tushe na haɓakar farashin zinariya a kasuwannin hada-hadar kuɗi. Ba shi ne karon farko da zinari ke nuna matsayinsa a matsayin mafakar tsaro a lokutan rikici na siyasa ba. Farashin oza na gwal ya tashi da kashi 3% a yau kuma yana kusa da $1, kusan $970 ne a kasa mafi girman lokaci.
Rasha ita ce babbar mai samar da palladium - wani muhimmin ƙarfe ga sassan motoci. Tushen: Bloomberg, Binciken XTB
Rasha ita ce muhimmiyar mai samar da palladium. Yana da maɓalli mai mahimmanci don samar da masu juyawa na catalytic don ɓangaren mota. Farashin Palladium ya yi tsalle kusan kashi 8% a yau.
Tsoro yana nufin sayarwa a kasuwanni
Kasuwannin hada-hadar hannayen jari na duniya suna daukar babban koma baya tun farkon shekarar 2020. Rashin tabbas yanzu shine ya fi daukar hankali a kasuwannin hada-hadar hannayen jari a duniya yayin da masu zuba jari ba su san abin da zai biyo baya ba. Gyara a cikin Nasdaq-100 na gaba ya zurfafa a yau, ya wuce 20%. Hannun jarin fasaha don haka sun sami kansu a cikin kasuwar bear. Koyaya, babban ɓangare na wannan raguwa ya faru ne sakamakon tsammanin haɓakar manufofin kuɗi na Fed. Makomar DAX ta Jamus ta faɗi kusan 15% tun tsakiyar watan Janairu kuma suna kasuwanci a kusa da bala'in bala'i.
DE30 yana ciniki a kusa da bala'in bala'i. Tushen: xStation5
Kasuwanci a Ukraine yana cikin haɗari
Bai kamata ya zama abin mamaki ba cewa kamfanoni da kamfanoni na Rasha da ke da matukar tasiri ga kasuwar Rasha sun dauki mafi girma. Babban jigon RTS na Rasha ya ragu da sama da 60% daga girman da aka cimma a watan Oktoba 2021. An yi ciniki a takaice a ƙasa da ƙarancin 2020 a yau! Polymetal International kamfani ne da ya kamata a lura da shi, wanda hannun jarin ya fado sama da kashi 30 cikin XNUMX a kasuwar hada-hadar hannayen jari ta London yayin da kasuwar ke fargabar takunkumin zai shafi kamfanin na Burtaniya da Rasha. Renault kuma abin ya shafa ne saboda Rasha ce kasuwa ta biyu mafi girma a kamfanin. Bankunan da ke da babban fallasa ga Rasha - UniCredit da Societe Generale - suma sun ragu sosai.
Hatta hauhawar farashin kayayyaki
Daga ra'ayi na tattalin arziki, halin da ake ciki a bayyane yake - rikicin soja zai zama tushen wani sabon tashin hankali. Farashin kusan dukkanin kayayyaki suna tashi, musamman kayan masarufi. Duk da haka, game da kasuwannin kayayyaki, da yawa zai dogara ne akan yadda rikici ya shafi kayan aiki. Yana da kyau a lura cewa har yanzu sarƙoƙin samar da abokan ciniki a duniya ba su murmure daga cutar ba. Yanzu wani mummunan abu ya bayyana. A cewar kididdigar New York Fed index, sarkar samar da kayayyaki ta duniya sun fi tabarbarewa a tarihi.
Babban bankin 'bluff
Tsoron bayan tasirin Covid-19 ya kasance ɗan gajeren lokaci, godiya ga babban tallafin bankunan tsakiya. Duk da haka, irin wannan mataki a yanzu ba zai yiwu ba. Domin rikicin yana da hauhawar farashin kayayyaki kuma yana da tasiri sosai kan wadata da kayayyaki fiye da buƙata, hauhawar farashin kayayyaki ya zama matsala mafi girma ga manyan bankunan tsakiya. A gefe guda kuma, saurin tsaurara manufofin kuɗi zai ƙara dagula hargitsin kasuwa ne kawai. A ganinmu, manyan bankunan tsakiya za su ci gaba da tsaurara manufofinsu da aka sanar. Haɗarin hawan 50bp ta Fed a cikin Maris ya koma baya, amma haɓakar ƙimar 25bp yana kallon yarjejeniyar da aka yi.
Me za mu iya tsammani a gaba?
Babban tambaya ga kasuwannin duniya a yanzu shine: Ta yaya rikici zai kara ruruwa? Amsar wannan tambaya za ta kasance mabuɗin don kwantar da kasuwanni. Da zarar an amsa, lissafin tasirin rikici da takunkumi zai wuce hasashe. Bayan haka, zai bayyana karara yadda tattalin arzikin duniya zai daidaita da sabon tsari.
