Daniel Hruska Da yawa daga cikinku na iya karanta labarai a cikin 'yan kwanakin nan game da saurin raguwar umarni don abubuwan da aka gyara (yafi nuni) don samar da iPhone. Game da wannan gaskiyar mu ku suka sanar haka mu ma. Nan da nan hasashe ya taso cewa Apple na shirin gabatar da tsarin samar da kayayyaki na tsawon watanni shida, watau samar da wanda zai gaje shi a cikin nau'in na gaba na wayar Apple (cika sunan da kanka). Wasu annabawa ma sun fara yada jita-jita game da farkon ƙarshen Apple. Maimakon haka, bari mu duba wasu lambobi mu ga yadda abubuwa suke da gaske.
Duk ya fara akan sabar Jafananci Nikkei. Jaridar Wall Street Journal ta kama wannan bayanin da ba a tabbatar da shi ba tare da jin daɗi: "Dokokin Apple don nunin iPhone 5 sun faɗi da kusan rabin idan aka kwatanta da kwata na farko na kasafin kuɗi (Oktoba zuwa Disamba)." Bayanin Nikkei, shine: "Apple ya nemi nunin Japan, Sharp da LG Display don yanke jigilar kayayyaki na LCD da kusan rabin miliyan 65 da aka tsara don lokacin Janairu-Maris, bisa ga mutanen da suka saba da lamarin." kamar rashin hankali? Bari mu yi tunani game da waɗannan lambobi kaɗan.
A cikin kwata na kwanan nan da aka ƙare, ƙididdigewa ga iPhones da aka siyar kewaya tsakanin raka'a miliyan 43-63. Za mu fi wayo lokacin da Apple ya fitar da sanarwar manema labarai. Duk da haka, ya kamata a lura cewa ban da iPhone 5, akwai kuma ƙarni biyu na baya da ake sayarwa, watau iPhone 4 da 4S. Matsakaicin ƙimar duk raka'o'in da aka sayar daidai yake da kusan miliyan 49, mafi kyawun ƙiyasin zai ƙara daidai miliyan 5 na wannan adadin zuwa iPhone 40. Tun da iPod touch ƙarni na biyar yana amfani da nuni iri ɗaya, bari mu ƙara wannan adadin zuwa miliyan 45.
Kowace shekara tun lokacin da aka ƙaddamar da iPhone ta farko, Apple ya ga raguwar tallace-tallace na cyclical, yawanci a cikin kwata na kasafin kuɗi na biyu (Q2), wanda shine - ba zato ba tsammani - lokacin yanzu. Misali, tallace-tallacen iPod touch yana faɗuwa da sauri cikin waɗannan watanni. Buƙatar iPhone 5 har yanzu tana da ƙarfi, amma idan Apple yana buƙatar allo miliyan 1 a cikin Q45, a ma'ana kaɗan za su isa a Q2. Amma nawa? Mu kira shi miliyan 40. Amma idan Apple ya ba da umarnin ƙarin nuni a cikin Q1 don tabbatarwa, ba zai zama dole don samar da cikakken miliyan 40 ba. Zai bukaci wasu miliyan 30-35 daga masu siyar da shi don sauran lokacin hunturu. Tabbas ba mu san duk wannan ba, hasashe kawai muke yi. Koyaya, ba a san wannan ba kuma ba a san sabar Nikkei ko tushen sa ba.
Amma babu ɗayan waɗannan da ya hana WSJ yin hasashe daidai a shafin farko - duk kwanaki takwas gabanin sakamakon kuɗin Apple na hukuma, wanda za a fito a ranar 23 ga Janairu. Bisa ga dukkan alamu, shekarar da ta gabata yakamata ta kasance kololuwar kamfanin Cupertino, wanda ya rasa tambarin ingancinsa. Bisa ga irin wannan labarin, wannan shine ainihin yadda yanayin Apple ya kamata ya kasance. Sai dai alkaluman sun ce akasin haka yayin da kamfanin ya yi nasarar siyar da wayoyin iPhone miliyan 1 a cikin Q37 na bara. Hatta kiyasin mafi ƙasƙanci na wannan shekara ya kasance haɓaka da kashi 20% akan bara. (A miliyan 50 zai zama 35%).
Jita-jita na raguwar yawan samar da kayan aikin ya kawo kididdiga masu ban sha'awa game da gasar. Mun fara jin "labari mai dadi" daga Nokia na Finland, wanda ya sayar da wayoyin Lumia miliyan 1 a Q4,4. Ya tafi ba tare da faɗin cewa ya yanke kashi 2% na hannun jarin sa ba kuma ya haɓaka tallace-tallacen sa ta hanyar rage farashin dillali. An fara shi a kan dala 99, wanda kusan rabin abin da wayoyin da ke fafatawa ke farawa da su. Don haka wannan labari ne mai dadi a cewar Nokia. Dandalin Windows Phone har yanzu yana da abubuwa da yawa don nunawa don irin wannan sakamakon da ba za a sake maimaita shi ba.
Cnet ya yi matukar farin ciki game da sanarwar Samsung na siyar da jerin wayoyi miliyan 100 na Galaxy S Wayoyin suna da matukar bukatar "Siyarwar Galaxy S3 ta kai raka'a miliyan 30 a cikin watanni 5, raka'a miliyan 40 a cikin watanni 7, tare da matsakaicin tallace-tallace na yau da kullun 190. "Kyawawan lambobi, dole ne kuyi tunani. Amma a yi hankali, za a iya yin wani abu mafi kyau da su - bari mu sanya su cikin mahallin kwata na baya. Apple zai sayar da iPhone 5s da yawa a ciki kamar yadda Samsung ya sami nasarar siyar da Galaxy S3 a cikin watanni 7! "Masana" sun riga sun fara danganta matsalolin ga Apple ba tare da ganin ainihin lambobi ba tukuna.
Tabbas, Samsung kuma yana ba da samfurin Galaxy S2 na baya don siye. A cewar Cnet, tare da raka'a miliyan 40 da aka sayar a cikin watanni 20, fare ne mai aminci. Don haka muna da miliyan 2 a kowane wata don wannan ƙirar tare da 17 miliyan Galaxy S3s, wanda a cewar Samsung ya sayar a Q4. Bugu da ari, idan muka kwatanta kawai ƙarni biyu na ƙarshe a cikin Q1, Apple ya sayar da wasu iPhones miliyan 35-45, Samsung kusan miliyan 23. Gaskiya ne cewa idan muka ƙidaya duk wayoyin Samsung, zai wuce Apple mahimmanci. Amma idan muka dubi ribar, Apple zai ci gaba da doke Samsung da sauran masu fafatawa a can. Kuma waɗannan su ne mahimman lambobi.
Ee, tallace-tallace na iPhone 5 yana faɗuwa kuma zai ci gaba da faɗuwa yayin da farkon sayayya ya wuce kuma Kirsimeti yana kan mu. Yanzu dole ne mu jira mako mai zuwa lokacin da Apple zai ba mu cikakkun bayanai masu inganci. Kamar yadda ya zama al'ada a cikin 'yan shekarun nan, za mu iya sa ran tallace-tallace na rikodi da riba.
Ina tsammanin wannan ita ce hanya madaidaiciya kuma a bayyane don sauke farashin hannun jarin apple daidai kafin sanarwar sakamakon rikodin, bayan haka hannun jari zai tashi sama. Duk wanda ya saya yanzu akan dala 500 zai sayar da shi akan dala 600 a wata daya.
Daidai, wasa ne kawai don rage farashin ta yadda wani zai iya yin kuskure (Ina mamakin yawan hannun jari na Apple mallakar WSJ) don kada mu yi mamakin abin da Apple zai ba mu mamaki da :-)
Haka ne, duk hasashe ba game da wani abu ba ne kuma yana da mahimmanci raguwa a cikin farashin hannun jari kafin sanarwar wani rikodin rikodi. Kuma za su kai 600 a karshen Janairu :-)
Naja numfashi...na kusa bacci saboda hakan...
Babban labarin, Ina buƙatar karanta wani abu kamar wannan bayan duk labarai na ƙararrawa mahaukaci a duk intanet.
An rubuta daidai! Godiya ga lambobi da ƙididdiga.. ;)
Babban labarin, a ƙarshe wani ya rubuta yadda yake. Na sami isassun waɗancan "clairvoyants" waɗanda koyaushe suna hasashen faduwar Apple kuma suna jin daɗin gaskiyar cewa an sayar da Nexuses miliyan a cikin wata ɗaya, kodayake Apple ya sayar da iPads sau uku a cikin kwanaki uku ...
Abin sha'awa cewa wani ya ɗauki matsala don yin shi. Apple kawai yana cikin wani wuri inda ba su san abin da zai faru ba tare da Ayyuka ba kuma ba su amince da shi sosai don sarrafa shi ba. Bugu da kari, akwai kuma gungun naysayers, kuma Apple zai yi mu'amala da shi. Ba na kishin Cook. Ya zuwa yanzu, suna yin daidai. Yana buƙatar wani abu don rufewa. Kuma wannan yanki tare da bayanan karya (idan an tabbatar da shi) Zan ba wasu ƙarin jaridu masu ƙarfi da girgiza idan na kasance Cook.
Ga alama a gare ni ba ku lura da wani ɗan ƙaramin bayani ba, wato cewa an kammala kwangilolin bisa wani nau'i na fata, kuma ba shakka har Apple bai gane ba sai Disamba cewa Kirsimeti mai zuwa ba a cikin Maris ba ne, kuma sun kasance. sun kasance suna ƙidaya akan raguwar buƙata. Don haka raguwar umarni yana nufin cewa, sabanin zato, kasuwa yana tasowa daban-daban fiye da tunanin Apple. Amma ba shakka in ba haka ba masu gyara na yanki na WSJ gabaɗaya ne masu son kuma shi ya sa ya kamata a yi bayaninsa da kyau.
Tabbas, ba tare da bayani ba ba zai yiwu a kimanta ba, kawai don yin hasashe, amma kamar yadda kuka bayyana cewa wani bai sani ba kuma har yanzu ya yanke shawara, haka ku ma. Zan iya yin hasashe haka. Me yasa Apple ya ba da oda da yawa abubuwa, a cewar ku, "kawai don tabbatarwa"? Shin suna da irin wannan babban tsammanin kuma sun kasa ƙididdige shi bisa ga kididdigar ciki? 50% bambanci yana da yawa. Apple ba shi da ra'ayin cewa Q na gaba ba zai yi kyau ba, watakila sun kasance sababbi ga kasuwa kuma ba su da masaniyar menene yanayin tallace-tallace? Sun gano ne kawai bayan ƙarshen Q wanda aka gabatar da IP5 + Kirsimeti a ciki cewa Q na gaba zai zama mafi muni? A ganina, bayanan da ke faruwa a duniya a yanzu ba game da sakamakon da za mu iya tsammanin yanzu ba, wadanda za su yi kyau, amma game da abin da zai faru, watau mafi munin tallace-tallace a cikin Q fiye da tallace-tallace na baya a cikin irin wannan yanayi, ko sabon IP, ko wani abu "ba zato ba tsammani".
Amma kamar yadda na rubuta, hasashe kawai nake yi.
Gaskiyar ita ce, koyaushe kuna biyan kuɗin ɓangaren da aka bayar (nuni, da sauransu) amma kuma don ƙarfin samarwa da mai siyarwar ke riƙe. Ana ƙididdige wannan cikin farashin ɓangaren -> ƙarami ƙarami = sassa masu tsada, idan amfani ya faɗi ƙasa da ƙarfin samarwa da aka ba da oda. Abu ne mai sauƙi, layin samarwa don takamaiman adadin sassa yana buƙatar biya. Babu wanda ke cikin hayyacinsa da ke shirin samun saura kashi 100 na ƙarfin aikin sa.
ASP(Matsakaicin Farashin Siyar) na wayoyin hannu na Nokia ya kasance $204 a Q3/2012 da $240 a Q4/2012. Don haka a cikin kwata na ƙarshe ya girma sosai. Nokia ce ta buga wadannan alkaluma. Daga cikin wayoyin hannu, Lumia ta ƙidaya tare da WP da Symbians (waɗanda ke da ASP a kusa da wanda aka ambata a cikin labarin, ɗaruruwan daloli).